There once was a time when some people wistfully assured themselves that Donald Trump’s rhetoric could be taken seriously, but not literally. He won’t actually ban Muslims, or actually pull out of the Iran nuclear pact, or actually start a trade war with our closest allies, they thought. But a stubborn president’s bad ideas are still his only ideas, and it was only a matter of time before he figured out how to use the power of his office to pursue them.
And so, after asserting for years that the United States has been treated unfairly in international trade, Trump is going full-steam ahead with tariffs on steel and aluminum imports — even in spite of opposition from members of his own party and foreboding predictions from an overwhelming plurality of economists. What’s less predictable is how the rest of the world responds to an irrational man with immense power. And in this latest round of Trump v. World, the world has counter-punched with… tariffs on sailboats?
In separate retaliatory measures, the European Union, Canada, Mexico, China, and India have threatened hundreds of new tariffs of their own on American-made goods. U.S. products such as toilet paper, ballpoint pens, shoes, airplanes, gherkins, and cranberries will soon cost more to export, a strategy that these countries hope will punish Trump’s enablers in Congress by hitting their constituents where it hurts most.
The effectiveness of this strategy depends a lot on how quickly and emphatically these members of Congress feel the heat. So let’s take a look at a handful of the legislators who might be sweating the most right now and what, if anything, they’re doing about it.
Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky.
Every aforementioned trade partner except for India has put U.S. whiskey makers on notice. It’s an obvious slap in the face to bourbon-crazy Kentucky’s senior senator (and Senate Majority Leader) Mitch McConnell, but only one House member represents the district with Bourbon County in it, and that’s Andy Barr. Barr has already collected more than $35,000 in campaign contributions from the alcohol industry in this election cycle. So far, the three-term incumbent hasn’t done much to earn his keep besides voicing his concerns with Trump administration officials.
Scott Perry, R-Pa.
Due to a new, court-mandated congressional map, Perry will be representing a new district in Pennsylvania if he has a successful reelection campaign. The new Tenth District is different from Perry’s old Fourth District in two key ways: it’s more competitive for Democrats, and it’s got more chocolate. Hershey, or “The Sweetest Place on Earth,” is in the Tenth District, and it could be hit hard by new tariffs on chocolate, cocoa, and other confectionery goods. Perry has come out against Trump’s tariffs, but his Democratic challenger, George Scott, has made a point of warning voters how those tariffs will adversely affect the local sweets industry.
David Kustoff, R-Tn.
Canada and the E.U. are planning tariffs on a variety of paper products, and that’s bad news for Memphis-based International Paper, one of the world’s largest paper producers. Kustoff doesn’t mention the word “tariff” even once on his house.gov site, even though he’s received some significant campaign contributions from his neighbors at IP.
Devin Nunes, R-Ca.; Kevin McCarthy, R-Ca.; David Valadao, R-Ca.; and Jeff Denham, R-Ca.
Much has been made of the fact that many of the retaliatory tariffs seem abundantly aggressive towards House Speaker Paul Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin, given the inclusion of cranberries, beef, pork, dairy products, and other agricultural goods on tariff lists. But four Republicans whose campaign contributions from agribusiness interests rival Ryan’s haul come from agriculture-heavy districts in California. Valadao, Denham, and Nunes (who oversaw the House’s half-assed Trump-Russia investigation) are all farmers themselves, and House Majority Leader McCarthy’s district produces “over $3 billion annually in crops.” For their parts, Denham and Valadao have come out against Trump’s tariff plan, but Nunes and McCarthy have been more supportive: McCarthy recasts the president’s trade war threats as more of a “trade discussion,” while Nunes wishfully posits that a trade war with China could “open up more trade with their neighbors.”
The president has claimed that “trade wars are good, and easy to win,” but in case we somehow lose a trade war with China, I guess the U.S. will have to try to get another country to eat a shit-ton more California walnuts.
