A new report published in the journal Nature Climate Change suggests that the goal set out by the Paris agreement is one we’re unlikely to hit. The agreement aims to limit overall warming of the Earth by less than 2 degrees Celsius. But based on recent carbon emissions data, the report’s author writes that there is only about a 5 percent chance of us hitting that goal.
The Paris agreement was signed by 196 countries, 156 of which have ratified it, with the goal of setting it into motion beginning in the year 2020. Though the U.S. signed the accord under President Barack Obama, President Trump pulled out on June 1, 2017, in a move that was globally controversial and widely considered to be a massive blow to the agreement. Several U.S. states have committed to honoring the rules of the accord separately.
The report suggests that population is not a major factor in the equation, and the model was produced taking into account efforts which are already underway to cut carbon emissions. It concludes that the “likely range of global temperature increase is 2.0–4.9 °C” by the year 2100.
